Belmont Day is shaping up to be wildly competitive for most races.
Chalk ratings measure the competitive level of a race, and are not a reflection of class. It’s possible for a maiden claimer to be quite competitive, and a stakes race to be a giveaway to the favorite. There are no guarantees in horse racing, but hopefully these ratings will help players decide when to consider the favorite and when to search for a longshot.
The average race comes in at 100. The favorite’s chances in such races are about 33%.
In races above 110, the win chances are split more or less evenly among the top five horses on the tote board.
In races below 90, the favorite wins about half the time.
RACE ONE Pass. Low info.
RACE TWO Chalk rating 145
ML: #6 Pipeline, 3/1
Most likely: 8-6-5-7-10
RACE THREE The Woody Stephens Chalk rating 96
ML: #3 Jackie’s Warrior 7/5
RACE FOUR The Brooklyn Chalk rating 140
ML: #8 Tizamagician 7/2
Most likely: 9-5-6-8-7 but nobody’s out of it.
RACE FIVE The Acorn Chalk rating 101
ML: # 6, Search Results 1/1
RACE SIX The Jaipur Chalk rating 150
ML: #6 Bound for Nowhere 2/1
Most likely: 6-11-4, but everybody’s in it.
RACE SEVEN The Ogden Phipps Chalk rating 92
ML: #3 Letruska 9/5
RACE EIGHT The Just a Game Chalk rating 170
ML: #11 Blowout 4/1 Most likely: 2-11-10
An insanely competitive race. Everybody’s in with a shot. Suggest minimum odds 6/1 even on the best horses.
RACE NINE The Metropolitan Chalk rating 63
ML: #6 Knicks Go 6/5
RACE TEN The Manhattan Chalk rating 119
ML: #10 Colonel Liam 5/2 Most likely: 7-9-10-5
RACE ELEVEN Chalk rating 98 The Belmont
ML: #2 Essential Quality 2/1
From a competitive standpoint, this is more or less an average race. However, there are three horses who are very close in talent: 2-4-3. A fair price on any of ‘em would be 7/2.
RACE TWELVE Chalk rating 125
ML: #3 Spungie 7/2
Most likely: 1-2-9-10-5
RACE THIRTEEN Chalk rating 149 ML: #1A Value Engineering (with #1) 5/2
Nine horses in here have a chance. Nine! Which suggests looking for odds of at least 5/1
Most likely: 6-1a-3-9