CHALK RATINGS, CHURCHILL, MAY 29:

It looks like a longshot day at the Twin Spires. The races are rated on a scale of 100, the lower ones likely to be chalky and the higher ones likely to produce longshots.

My latest figures prove the point:

  • 123 horses carrying odds of greater than 5/1, running in races rated BELOW 90.
  • Four of them won. That’s a 3% win chance and a loss of 78 cents per dollar wagered.

Lonshot players who want to swing for the fences might look to races scoring at least 110.

The “depth chart” is for Pick players, and goes deeper in more competitive races.

RACE 1: PASS, LOW INFO

RACE 2: 99 Depth chart: 5-8-4-6

RACE 3: 127 Depth chart: 3-11-2-10

RACE 4: 112 Depth chart: 8-6-2

RACE 5: 110 Depth chart: 8-4-1-6

RACE 6: 94 Depth chart: 7-5

RACE 7: 77 Depth chart: 7

RACE 8: 131 Depth chart: All

RACE 9: 101 Depth chart: 3-2

RACE 10: 113 Depth chart: 5-8-9-7

RACE 11: 99 Depth chart 8-9

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