A very weak card should produce nearly all chalk winners. There seems to be only one competitive race. (The average race nationwide comes in at about 100 on the strength scale.)
RACE 1: Scratched down to a 4-horse race. Pass.
RACE 2: Stength 70
# 2 Central Park. 6/5 would be fair, but doubt you’ll get it.
Worst bet: #3 Big League Benny, 2/1 morning line, 24% win chance. His lone race at CBY was way below par. So he’d be bettable –maybe– at 7/2.
RACE 3: Strength 71
# 6 A Rose and Wine. Fair odds: 1/1 No turf experience but strong class advantage.
#1 Lifeatheredindian has the best turf performance by far, but looks in poor form. Would definitely take the morning price of 8/1. Owner should be fined for unspeakable name.
May get a bargain here, because the morning line pick is #2 Shedialed Burreaux, who has only a very cheap maiden win, and also has never raced on the turf. Morning line says 9/5, we say 5/1. So we’ll see.
RACE 4: Strength 70
Not competitive beyond the top 3:
#2 Rasmus, 6/5. Long layoff, but strong works and a good trainer line.
#7 Shay’s Glory 5/2 also capable.
#5 Mrs. D’s Concerto 9/2
RACE 5: Strength 105
By far the most competitive race. May well go to a longshot.
#11 Cougar In from Chicago, turf runs improving. 2/1
#5 Metaphar. 2nd race, Santa Anita shipper, new trainer. 4/1
#10 Note Pad 6/1 Class drop after a long winter’s rest.
RACE 6: Strength 71
#6 My Cowboy 3/2 . This 9-year old gelding is 4/1 in the morning. Lousy showing on turf down in Florida may fool the crowd.
The folks like #3 OMEN OF CHANGE, and the trainer, Diodoro, is killing the Minnesota track these days. Brisnet also likes this horse best. But 6/5 is way too short, and I expect a place finish or worse.
DON’T WASTE YOUR MONEY: #7 CH Jay, quoted at 12/1. Fair odds: 44/1. Win chance 2%
RACE 7: Strength 99
# 8 Uncle Goyle 8/5.This old-timer comes back after touring the US in a van. Let’s hope he enjoyed the sights. Strong record on CBY turf.
#9 Most Amusing is the fastest horse – on dirt. After 23 dirt races, why are they putting him on the grass? 4/1 would be fairer than quoted odds of 5/2.
RACE 8: Strength 63
Absolute bottom level maiden claimers.
#4 Beautiful Babe 4/5 Has a distinct class advantage, and was just claimed by Diodoro. Why would this formidable trainer claim a $5000, 0-for-12 filly? Hmmm.
Brisnet prefers #6 Pharaoh’s Daughter, but her only sharp runs were in the cheapest Fonner Park ranks.