CHALK VS. LONGSHOTS, CHURCHILL, MAY 27

The average race scores a little above 100. Races with lower scores will tend to produce chalky winners. (Under 5/1.) Races with scores above 100 will tend to produce longshot winners (Greater than 5/1)

In the last test of this theory, involving 50-some races, races rated under 100 were won by horses paying on average 3/1. In races rated more than 100, the winners paid on average 10/1.

Today’s card at CD offers four easy races, followed by four tough ones.

AS IT TURNED OUT, THE THREE HIGHEST RANK RACES PRODUCED WINNERS OF 20/1, 7/1 AND 2/1.

RACE ONE: Chalk score: 80
#4 win at 2/5 No surprise.

# 4: COAL SHAFT 6/5 expected odds. Dropped so far the poor filly’s head is still spinning. #3 AMBITIOUSLY PLACED seems to offer the only competition, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

For exotic players: Horses in order of probability: 4 -3-6-5-2-1
Bold face indicates at least a 10% chance.

RACE TWO : Chalk score 90
#2 win at 1/1 wired ’em easy.

#3: MELTING SNOW 3/2 as appropriate to her name, got caught in a mud fest last time. Her last race on a fast track beats this field by 3 lengths. #1 SUNNY ISLE BEACH offers some resistance, probably as the 7/2 second choice. I’d rather be on the beach than in the snow, but will make an exception for this race.

Horses in order of probability: 3 -1-2-5-4-6

RACE THREE: Chalk score 81
#1 @ 7/2 … Got 4/1 on our pick, but he was gassed.

#4: A LOT OF SPUNK 6/5. Spunky holds a class and speed advantage. #5 CHEWY CHEWY GOOD, at 3/1, will chew up some ground but probably not enough.

Horses in order of probability: 4-5-6-31 -7-2

RACE FOUR: Chalk score 85
#2 @ 4/1 … our 6/5 choice failed.

#6: CHAMPAGNE AFFAIR 7/5. Four wins in the last 10 and now switches to a savvier trainer. Huge class advantage.

Horses in order of probability: 6-5-12 -4-7-3

RACE FIVE: Chalk score 98
#2 @2/1 Crowd’s choice won, no surprise at this rating.

#8: JUNESANDRA 9/5. From here on in, the competition on this card gets tougher. This is our top choice here but I wouldn’t take a short price. The #1, #2 and #5 are nearly as good, and one may get lucky at a price. Look for 4/1 or better. #5 ABDAN is the Brisnet pick, and may end up the favorite, but would be a bad play at short odds. That last speed figure was in the slop, and may or may not be genuine.

Horses in order of probability: 8-5- 2- 1-6-7-3-4

RACE SIX: Chalk score 106
#7 @ 20/1 Did expect a longshot, but not that one.

#5: HAT TIP 2/1. A 25% winner on turf, but she’s missed in her last 8 races. This is a fairly competitive race, with the main threats being #6, #4, #8.

Horses in order of probability: 5-6-4-8-2-3- 7 -1

RACE SEVEN Chalk score 124
#10 @ 7/1 The 9/5 favorite finished 9th.

#5: COLTONATOR 5/2. Ranked a strong third by Brisnet, this plodder has actually been known to wire the field. Morning line is 6/1. This huge field is absolutely loaded with true contenders. The #10, HOME BASE, for instance, is as likely as anyone to emerge from the chaos. He’s listed at 15/1, but our true odds guess is 9/1. Plungers might take a swing at just about anyone here. Chalkers will pass, pass, pass.

Horses in order of probability: 5-2- 10 -4-12-1-8-7-11-3-6-9

RACE EIGHT Chalk score 121
#8 @ 2/1 The favorite beat us this time.

#9: KING’S MISCHIEF 5/2 by our calculations, is 12/1 according to the morning line. But this maiden turf spring offers plenty of chance for chaos, and likely winners are all over the place: #10, #8, #11,#5, #7 being most likely. Time to swing for the fences.

Horses in order of probability: 9-10-3 8 -11-6-5-7-1-12-4

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